A Study on Volatility in Indian stock market

Literature

Engle (1982) conducted in study that measured the time-varying volatility. His model, ARCH, is based on the idea that a natural way to update a variance forecast is to average it with the most recent squired "surprise"(i.e. the squired deviation of the rate of return from its mean).While conventional time series and econometric models operate under an assumption of constant variance, the ARCH process allows the conditional variance to change over time as a function of past errors leaving the unconditional variance constant. In the empirical application of the ARCH model a relatively long lag in the conditional variance equation is often called for, and to avoid problems with negative variance parameters a fixed lag structure is typically imposed.

        Bollerslev (1986) conducted in study to overcome the ARCH limitations introduced his model, GARCH that generalized the ARCH model to allow for both a longer memory and a more flexible lag structure. As noted above, in the empirical application of the ARCH model, a relatively long lag in the conditional variance equation is often called for, and to avoid problems with negative variance parameters a fixed lag structure is typically imposed. In the ARCH process the conditional variance is specified as a linear function of past sample variance only, whereas the GARCH process allows lagged conditional variances to enter in the model as well.

       

        Engle, Lilien, and Robins (1987) conducted in study introduced the ARCH-M model by extending the ARCH model to allow the conditional variance to be determinant of the mean. Whereas in its standard form, ARCH model expresses the conditional variance as a linear function of past squired innovations in this new model they hypothesize that, changing conditional variance directly affect the expected return on a portfolio. Their results from applying this model to three different data sets of bond yields are quite promising. Consequently, they conclude that risk premia are not time invariant; rather they vary systematically with agent's perceptions of underlying uncertainty.

       

Nelson (1991) conducted in study extended the ARCH framework in order to better describe the behavior of return volatilities. Nelson's study is important because of the fact that it extended the ARCH methodology in a new direction, breaking the rigidness of the G/ARCH specification. The most important contribution was to propose a model (EARCH) to test the hypothesis that the variance of return was influenced differently by positive and negative excess returns. His study found that not only was the statement true, but also that excess returns were negatively related to stock market variance

        Engle and Ng (1993) conducted in study measure the impact of bad and good news on volatility and report an asymmetry in stock market volatility towards good news as compared to bad news. More specifically, market volatility is assumed to be associated with the arrival of news. A sudden drop in price is associated with bad news on the other hand, a sudden increase in price is said to be due to good news. Engle and Ng find that bad news create more volatility than good news of equal importance. This asymmetric characteristic of market volatility has come to be known as the "leverage effect". The studies of Black (1976), Christie (1982), FSS (1987), Schwert (1990) and Pagan and Schwert (1989) also explain this volatility asymmetry with the" leverage effect". However, their models do not capture this asymmetry.Engle and Ng (1993) provide new diagnostic tests and models, which incorporate the asymmetry between the type of news and volatility, they advise researchers to use such enhanced models when studying volatility.

  

Batra (2004) conducted in study in an article entitled" stock return volatility patterns in India” examined the time varying pattern of stock return volatility and asymmetric Garch methodology. He also examined sudden shifts in volatility and the possibility of coincidence of these sudden shifts with significant economic and political events both of domestic and global origin. Also, he examined stock market cycles for variation in amplitude, duration and volatility of the bull and bear phases over the reference period. His analysis revealed that liberalization of the stock market or the FII entry in particular does not have any direct implications for the stock returns volatility. No structural changes in the stock price volatility around any liberalization event or more importantly around the dates of breaks for volatility in FII sales and purchases in India were observed. The apparent link generally drawn between stock price volatility and the sudden withdrawal or heavy purchase by the FIIs i.e. the volatile FII investment in the stock market did not seem to hold true for India. In all the phases, as delineated by their structural break analysis, the period between 1991:05 and 1993:12 was the most volatile period with the standard deviation of stock returns exceeding that in the other periods. The study also showed that in general over the references period the bull phases are longer, the amplitude of the bull is higher and the volatility in the phases is also higher. He also concluded that the gains during expansions are larger than the losses during the bear phases of stock market cycles. The bull phase, in comparison with its pre liberalization character was more stable in the post liberalization phase. The results of their analysis also, showed that the stock market cycles have dampened in the recent past. Finally, the study showed that volatility has declined in the post liberalization phase for both the bull and bear phase of the stock market cycles.

Kumar (2006) conducted in study in an article entitled “comparative performance of volatility forecasting models in Indian markets"evaluated the comparative ability of different statistical and economic volatility forecasting models in the context of Indian stock and Forex markets. Based on the out of sample forecasts and the number of evaluated measures that rank a particular method as superior he concluded that it is possible to infer that EWMA will lead to improvements in volatility forecasts in the stock markets and the GARCH (5,1) will achieve the same in the Forex market. As he concluded, his findings were contrary to the findings of Brailsford and Paff (1996) who found no single method as superior, but the results in stock market were similar to the findings of Akigray (1989), McNillian (2001), Anderson and Bollerslev(1998) and Anderson et al (1999) in the Forex market.

Banerjee and Sarkar (2006) conducted in study in an article entitled” long memory property of stock returns; evidence from India” examined the presence of long memory in asset returns in the Indian stock market. They found that although daily returns are largely uncorrelated, there is strong evidence of long memory in its conditional variance. They concluded that FIGARCH is the best-fit volatility model and it outperforms other Garch type models. They also observed that the leverage effect is insignificant in Sensex returns and hence symmetric volatility models turn out to be superior as they expected.

Rogobon (2003) conducted in study has focused on alternative measures of volatility in the equity and bond markets in the period surrounding the financial crises.

       

        Bekaert and Harvey (2000) conducted in study analyzed equity returns in a group of emerging markets before and after      financial reforms. The empirical studies investigating the volatility of returns have yielded mixe conclusions.

           

Nilsson (2002) conducted in study has explored that stock market liberalization can lead to excess volatility possibly on account of noise trading for Nordic stock markets using the Markov regime-switching model. He finds evidence of higher expected return, higher volatility and stronger links with international stock markets characteristic of the deregulated period in all Nordic stock markets.

Richards (1996) conducted in study used three different methodologies and two sets of data to estimate volatility of emerging markets. A common claim of all these studies is that, the proposition that liberalization increases volatility is not supported by empirical evidence.

Aggarwal, Inclan and Leal (1999) conducted in study analyze volatility in emerging stock markets during 1985-95. Using an ICSS algorithm to identify the points of sudden changes in the variance of returns they examine the nature of events that cause large shifts in stock return volatility in these economies. Aggarwal et al find that mostly local events cause jumps in the stock market volatility of the emerging markets.

        - Cost effectiveness and maximization of returns are the objectives of every investment decisions. These objectives can be achieved by a proper choice of the instruments bearing in mind their features. Volatility is the most basic statistical risk measure. It can be used to measure the market risk of a single instrument or an entire portfolio of instruments. While volatility can be expressed in different ways, statistically, volatility of a random variable is its standard deviation.

DNS Spoofing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM5Rfz0gN-Q

What is DNS spoofing?

DNS spoofing is a term used when a DNS server accepts and uses incorrect information from a host that has no authority giving that information. DNS spoofing is in fact malicious cache poisoning where forged data is placed in the cache of the name servers. Spoofing attacks can cause serious security problems for DNS servers vulnerable to such attacks, for example causing users to be directed to wrong Internet sites or e-mail being routed to non-authorized mail servers (see example below).



DNS spoofing: How is it done?

Let’s imagine three companies (A, B and C), all competing in a challenging global environment.

Company A and B are working together in developing a product that will generate a major competitive advantage for them. Company A has a secure DNS server while company B has a DNS server vulnerable to spoofing. With a spoofing attack on the DNS server of company B, company C gains access to outgoing e-mails from company B.

What are the consequences?

A spoofing attack can continue for a long period without being noticed. In fact, companies may never know of the security breach until the competitor enters the market with a product of similar characteristics. The consequences of a spoofing attack would be that companies can destroy any opportunity other companies have to create a competitive edge. The frightening thing, in times when IP address management and security are the top concerns for the high technology community, is that most top level business managers have not yet realized the financial and security risks associated with DNS spoofing.

What can be done?

In order to prevent many sources of Internet attacks, it is necessary to have the security built into DNS systems. To minimize the risk of a spoofing attack, every organization or individual responsible for a domain should first check which type of name server they are using and consult with its developer whether it is secure against DNS spoofing or not. It is also possible to use the latest version of DNS Expert to check the vulnerability of all types of DNS servers to DNS spoofing and other DNS problems. For a helpfull discussion on how to address the spoofing problem both for BIND and the Microsoft DNS Server check this article.

The Best keylogger 3.54 full version free download

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Gmail Now Protects Your Inbox From Malevolent Extensions

popular service like Gmail inevitably becomes a target for hackers. Over the years, Google has made quite a few security improvements, such as requiring HTTPS connections to prevent others from getting access to your email. Today the company announced that it has implemented support for Content Security Policy (CSP) to prevent cross-site scripting attacks and malevolent browser plug-ins from messing with your inbox and (potentially) stealing your data. 

Content Security Policy in the way Google has implemented it is a blacklist/whitelist system for stopping sites from loading unsafe code from third-party sites and preventing cross-site scripting attacks. It uses the HTTP header to instruct the browser to only execute and render code from trusted sites. So if an attacker tries to trick the site into loading any other code, the site will simply throw an error.

Google notes that most popular extensions for Gmail have already been updated and should continue to work as usual. In case one of your favorite extensions in Chrome or Firefox stops working, though, Google recommends updating to the latest version. 

Chrome, Firefox and Safari currently support CSP. Microsoft’s Internet Explorer only has limited support for an older version of it.

Hackers leak 13,000 Passwords Of Amazon, Walmart and Brazzers Users

Hackers claiming affiliation with the hacktivist group "Anonymous" have allegedly leaked more than 13,000 username and password combinations for some of the worlds most popular websites, including Amazon, Xbox Live and Playstation Network.

The stolen personal information was released in a massive text document posted to the Internet file-sharing website Ghostbin (now deleted), on Friday. The document contains a huge number of usernames and passwords, along with credit card numbers and expiration dates.

The news came just a day after the hacker group Lizard Squad compromised Sony’s Playstation and Microsoft’s Xbox Live gaming networks on Christmas day, which is estimated to have affected Xbox's 48 million subscribers and PlayStation's 110 million users, making it a total of more than 150 million users worldwide.

However, data breach of 13,000 users is not the biggest data breach we've ever seen. When millions of passwords are used for sites around the globe, chances are very minor that our’s among those compromised. But still it’s important to note as these accounts come from a variety of online sources and among those, some are really very popular.
The Daily Dot's Aaron Sankin has compiled a comprehensive list of sites associated with the username and password leaks, and discovered that the leaks came from the sites run the gamut from pornography to gaming to online shopping. The list of the compromised websites is as follows:

    Amazon
    Walmart
    PlayStation Network
    Xbox Live
    Twitch.tv
    Dell
    Brazzers
    DigitalPlayground
    and see complete list.

Just to be on a safer side, users are recommended to change their passwords if they have accounts on these compromised websites, and also pay attention to your credit card transactions and if any suspicious activity found, immediately communicate with related banks and financial institutions.

Also, don't use the same passwords for banking and online shopping sites, and always keep an eye out for unusual activities or unauthorized purchases with your accounts.

Detekt — Free Anti-Malware Tool To Detect Govt. Surveillance Malware

Human rights experts and Privacy International have launched a free tool allowing users to scan their computers for surveillance spyware, typically used by governments and other organizations to spy on human rights activists and journalists around the world.

This free-of-charge anti-surveillance tool, called Detekt, is an open source software app released in partnership with Human rights charity Amnesty International, Germany’s Digitale Gesellschaft, the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) and Privacy International, in order to combat government surveillance. 

NEED AN EYE FOR AN EYE 
The global surveillance carried out by the US National Security Agency (NSA) and other government agencies recently disclosed by the former NSA contractor Edward Snowden shed light on just how far our own government can go to keep track of citizens, whether innocent or otherwise. Therefore, such tool will help them see if their devices have been infected by any spyware.

Detekt was developed by security researcher Claudio Guarnieri, who has been investigating government abuse of spyware for years and often collaborates with other researchers at University of Toronto's Citizen Lab. 

"It was intended as a triaging utility for human rights workers travelling around. It is not an AV [AntiVirus]," explained the developer Claudio Guarnieri in an online discussion about the tool on Twitter with other security researchers. 

With the help of Detekt scanning tool in investigations, Guarnieri and his colleagues discovered, for example, that the Bahraini government used FinSpy, surveillance spyware developed by German firm FinFisher. Among other, FinSpy software has ability to monitor Skype conversations, take screenshots and photos using a device's camera, record microphone use, emails, voice-over-IP and extract files from hard discs. 


Moreover, Guarnieri’s team also found that the Ethiopian government spied on journalists and activists in the U.S. and Europe, using a software developed by Hacking Team, another company that sells off-the-shelf surveillance tools, and similar companies. 

"Governments are increasingly using dangerous and sophisticated technology that allows them to read activists and journalists’ private emails and remotely turn on their computer’s camera or microphone to secretly record their activities," Amnesty head of military, security and police Marek Marczynski said in a statement. "They use the technology in a cowardly attempt to prevent abuses from being exposed." 

"Detekt is a simple tool that will alert activists to such intrusions so they can take action. It represents a strike back against governments who are using information obtained through surveillance to arbitrarily detain, illegally arrest and even torture human rights defenders and journalists." 
DOWNLOAD DETEKT ANTI-SURVEILLANCE TOOL 
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Detekt, for now, has been designed for Windows PC users to scan their machines for known surveillance spyware that its developers warn is used to target and monitor specifically human rights defenders and journalists across the globe. The tool is not yet supported on the 64-bit version of Windows 8.1.


Detekt scans computers for infection patterns associated with several families of remote access Trojans (RATs) including DarkComet RAT, XtremeRAT, BlackShades RAT, njRAT, FinFisher FinSpy, HackingTeam RCS, ShadowTech RAT and Gh0st RAT.

"If Detekt does not find anything, this unfortunately cannot be considered a clean bill of health," the Detekt software's Readme file warns.

The tool can make you aware of the presence of spyware, but it is by no means 100 percent effective, and can’t detect all types of spywares. So, the human rights group is encouraging software developers to contribute to the project.

How to Bypass Windows 8 Login Screen After Startup

Do you find it troublesome to sign in with the username and password in the Windows 8 login screen after startup or sleep? Here’s a nifty hack on how to bypass it, which means the system automatically signs in your username and password.

Combining it with the disable lock screen tweak, you’ll be directed to the desktop in a few seconds. However, implementing this tweak poses security risks to your computer, especially if you’re sharing it with several users, so do it at your own risk.

We assume you know how to edit and create keys in the Registry Editor and have basic knowledge on how to use the Command Prompt – with either of the two, we can bypass the login screen.

Note: make sure you have the Administrator rights in the system, otherwise change it in User Account Control (UAC).
Deactivate user login screen in Command Prompt

If you choose this tweak, the login screen will be disabled for all users. We highly recommend you only do this if you’re the only user or you have a shared computer with trusted family members.

1. On the keyboard, press “Windows key + X.”

2. Choose the “Command Prompt (Admin),” and when the UAC prompts you for permission, choose “Yes.”

bypasswindows8login-admincommand

3. After the Command Prompt box shows up, type:

control userpasswords2

The UA management window will show up.

bypasswindows8login-commandprompt

4. Uncheck the box, “Users must create a user name and password to use this computer.”

bypasswindows8login-uac

5. Click “OK” and “Apply” – restart the computer for the changes to take effect.
Deactivate user login screen in Registry Editor

Another way to disable the login screen is via Registry Editor. Follow the steps below and make sure you’re accessing the same folder(s) or path(s) as stated.

1. On the keyboard, press “Windows key + R” to launch the Run bar.

2. In the Run bar, type regedit.

3. Click “Yes” once the UAC asks you for access.

4. Browse the Registry Editor folders and go to this path:

HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows NT\CurrentVersion\Winlogon

Note: if you can’t find the “CurrentVersion” key, you need to create a folder first to keep the sub-key “Winlogon” (assuming you can’t find it, proceed to the next step).

5. Right-click the “Windows NT” folder, then hover the mouse to “New” and choose “Key.” Label the key “CurrentVersion.”

6. Next, to create the sub-key, right-click the “CurrentVersion” folder, then hover to “New” and choose “Key.” Label it “Winlogon.”

bypasswindows8login-newstring

7. Under the “Winlogon” key, create a new string –  hover the mouse to “New” and choose “String Value” and label it with your default username. The format is: MicrosoftAccount\yourusername.

bypasswindows8login-accountusername

8. Next, in that same folder, create a new string value and label it “AutoAdminLogon.”

bypasswindows8login-adminlogon

9. Once created, modify the value – right-click and change it to 1.

10. Lastly, create a new string for the password and label it “DefaultPassword” – edit the value and type your password. Your window should look like this.

bypasswindows8login-values

11. Close the Registry Editor and restart/reboot your computer.

Note: On my first attempt, it didn’t affect my system. However, I checked the Registry Editor and went back to the same path above – these folders (CurrentVersion and Winlogon) have lists of strings and values, which I didn’t find when I created them (e.g Winlogon key). I checked the values of username, password, and autoadminlogon (notice the value of AutoAdminLogon below is 0; I had to change it to 1) one more time and restarted the system.

bypasswindows8login-registryvalues

And finally, Windows 8 automatically signed in my username and password. I don’t have to enter them every now and then.

However, if you wake the PC, you’ll encounter the login screen again, requiring you to enter the password. In a nutshell, unless you do the next steps, the tweaks above only work after startup. The solution? Hack our way to “Password Policy”

1. From Start Menu, type in the Search bar “users” – choose the “Account users.”

2. Click the “Sign-in options,” and then choose “Change” under Password Policy.

bypasswindows8login-passwordpolicy

3. The dialog box confirms whether you still want to make changes. Click “Change”

4. Exit the PC Settings and restart your computer. Activate the Sleep (on my keyboard, it’s Fn key + F4), wake the computer, and check if the login screen still appears.
Conclusion

The Command Prompt is easier and quicker than the Registry Editor tweak – of the two, it can automatically sign in your account – make sure you change the password policy in PC Settings so you won’t have to log in again. But remember, you do this tweak at your own risk.

Make Friends scare for VIRUS

Open notepad and type this:

lol=msgbox ("Warning a virus has been detected on your PC. Press YES to format your hard disk now or press NO to format your hard disk after system reboot",20,"Warning")

Then save it as Virus.VBS

and go to the folder that contains it and open it if a window pops out saying a virus has been detected it's working. Press yes or no to close the window and put it in the startup folder of the victim's account.
On startup the window should appear.

NOTE : This does not harm your computer as it does not contain virus.

The Yes and no button does not do anything except closing the window. And you can edit the virus in the sentence: Warning a virus has detected on your PC to any kind of virus eg.Trojan Horse like this lol=msgbox ("Warning a Trojan horse has been detected on your PC. Press YES to format your hard disk now or press NO to format format your hard disk after system reboot",20,"Warning")

Oh in between make sure your victim does not panic and really reformat his harddisk. hahaha  35

INTERNET ERROR CODES !!

INTERNET ERROR CODES !!
___________________________
Most of us come across the internet errors, during browsing.. Here i give the correct meanings or the mistakes which we have done..
Error 400 - Bad request.
Error 401 - unauthorized
request.
Error 403 - forbidden.
Error 404 - Not found.
Error 500 -Internal error.
Error 501 - Not Implemented
Error 502 - Bad Gateway
Error 503 -Service unavailable.
Error 504 - Gateway Time-Out
Error 505 - HTTP Version not supported/DNS Lookup Fail/unknwn host
Error 500-599 - Server Errors.

More tricks : http://goo.gl/XzsWuT

Send Free SMS Without Using Any Internet

Send Free SMS Without Using Any Internet
Connection OR Any Packs @SCIENTIST_TriCkS
step 1: Sign up at 160by2.com
step 2: Now from your mobile type
# ACC (SPACE)MOBILE NUMBER
(SPACE)PASSWORD
And send it to 55444
Example: ‪#‎ACC‬ 9143143143 MyPassword
and send it to 55444
Now you are logged in to send free sms type:-
# send(space)receiver's number
(space)message and send it to
55444
Example: # send 8143143143 hello scientist speaking
and send it 55444
When the message will send and you will get
the delivery report by sms on your mobile
phone.
You can also use this same service call in the
way2sms and so on...

Once A Software Engineer Was
Smoking In A Public Place,
Old Man Saw Him And Said: You
Did’nt See That Board Indicates
Warning About “Smoking In
Public Places Is Prohibited”
Software Engineer: Oye Uncle, I
Am Software Engineer By
Profession And We Only Worry
About Bugs & Errors….Not
Warnings

...Hack Any WI-FI nearby You...!!!

...Hack Any WI-FI nearby You...!!!
There are basically 2 types of security keys :
WEP( Wireless Encryption Protocol) : This is the most basic form of encryption. This has become an unsafe option as it is vulnerable and can be cracked with relative ease. Although this is the case many people still use this encryption.
WPA( Wi-FI Protected Access) : This is the most secure wireless encryption. Cracking of such network requires use of a wordlist with common passwords. This is sort of brute force attack. This is virtually uncrackable if the network is secured with a strong password
So lets begin the actual Wifi Hacking tutorial!
* In order to crack wi-fi password, you require the following things :
1) A Desktop or Laptop having a Wireless Adapter
2) Backtrack Live DVD : This DVD is used to boot into backtrack OS, Backtrack OS is a hacking OS and will be used in my further hacking tutorials that is why I am asking to download it. It can be downloaded at : Download Backtrack to hack wifi Passwords
...These are the things you require now let us proceed with the steps to crack wifi passwords easily.
1) Download the Backtrack OS ISO image and burn it to a DVD. Boot from that DVD ( Insert that DVD into CD-ROM and restart your PC.) You will see backtrack starting. Choose “Backtrack Default text version”. After that it will start executing some commands. Wait till you see something like in the following screenshot :
How to hack a wifi password | crack wifi passwords easily
You will see root@bt:’# , Type startx and hit enter.
The color of the screen will be different as the screenshot is of the earlier version of backtrack. You will get a red-black screen of backtrack. Wait for few minutes, after it is done, you will get a desktop like version of backtrack.
Openvas3
Now Open the Konsole from the taskbar, Click on the icon against the dragon like icon in the taskbar in the above screenshot.
You will have a Command Prompt like Shell.
2) Type airmon-ng and hit Enter. You will have a screen like this, note down the name of interface, in our case the the name is wlan0.
How to hack a wifi password
3) Now type ifconfig wlan0 down and hit enter.
This command will disable your wireless adapter, we are doing this in order to change your MAC address.
3) Now type ifconfig wlan0 hw ether 00:11:22:33:44:55 and hit enter.
This command will change your MAC address to 00:11:22:33:44:55 in order to hide your identity.
4) Now type airmon-ng start wlan0 and hit enter.
This will start the network adapter in monitor mode. Note down the new interface name, it could be eth0 or mon0 or something like that.
How to hack wifi passwords easily
The above command has started our network adapter in monitor mode as mon0, note down this name.
5) After this type airmon-ng mon0 and hit enter
Replace the mon0 with interface name you discovered in step 4. This command will show you the list of available networks. Press Ctrl+C to stop the airmon to search for more networds. Copy the BSSID of the wireless network which you want to hack.
How to crack wifi passwords easily
In the above screenshot there is a list of available networks, Choose 1 network and note the BSSID andchannel of it.
6) Type airodump-ng -c channelno –bssid BSSIDN1 mon0 -w filename and hit enter.
Replace channelno and BSSIDN1 with the data from step 5. Replace the mon0 with network interface name from step 4. In place of filename write anyname and do remember that. Better use filename itself.
This command will begin capturing the packets from the network. You need to capture more and more packets in order to crack the wifi password. This packet capturing is a slow process.
7) To make the packet capturing faster, we will use another command. Open a new shell, don’t close the previous shell. In new shell type aireplay-ng -1 0 -a BSSIDN1 -h 00:11:22:33:44:55 mon0 and hit enter.
Replace the BSSIDN1 with the data from step 5 and mon0 from step 4. This command will boost the data capturing process.
The -1 tells the program the specific attack we wish to use which in this case is fake authentication with the access point. The 0 cites the delay between attacks, -a is the MAC address of the target access point, -h is your wireless adapters MAC address and the command ends with the your wireless adapters device name.
8) Now wait for few mins, let the DATA in the other console reach a count of 5000.
crack wifi passwords easily
The data in above screenshot is 1, wait for that to reach 5000.
9) After it reaches 5000, open another console and type aircrack-ng filename-01.cap and hit enter.
Replace the filename with the name you used in step 6. Add -01.cap to it. .cap is the extension of file having captured data packets.
After typing this command, aircrack will start trying to crack the Wi-FI password. If the encryption used is WEP, it will surely crack the password within few minutes.
In case of WPA use the following command instead of the above aircrack-ng -w /pentest/wireless/aircrack-ng/test/password.lst -b BSSIDN1 filename-01.cap
Replace BSSIDN1 and filename with data you used. /pentest/wireless/aircrack-ng/test/password.lst is the address of a file having wordlist of popular passwords. In case of WPA aircrack will try to brute force the password.
As I explained above that to crack WPA you need a file having passwords to crack the encryption.
If you are lucky enough and the network owner is not smart enough,
You will get the password....!!